my rough AI risk estimates

(2022-05-20 edit: these numbers have been updated after some ruminating over potential unknown unknowns and the possibility that i am reasoning wrong)

the numbers are spoilered so you can make your own guess without getting anchored. click on the text to reveal the number.

these are my pretty rough estimates for what happens to our current civilization:

if we die of AI, when does it happen?

rember that if we get past those decades without dying, that's not evidence that i got those wrong; that's evidence that either i got those wrong, or our civilization benefits from some amount of quantum immortality.

part of my reasons for believing in those odds is private information.

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