posted on 2023-02-11

my takeoff speeds? depends how you define that

what takeoff speeds for transformative AI do i believe in? well, that depends on which time interval you're measuring. there are roughly six meaningful points in time to consider:

note that this view is, i think, qualitatively orthogonal to how aligned a transformative AI is; those are all meaningful thresholds regardless of whether the AI is taking over everything to build utopia or to tile the universe with paperclips. that said, it can still be quantitatively different when it comes to the durations between any two points in time; for example, one generally expects that the time between development and launch takes longer for aligned AI than unaligned AI.

my model is currently:

in any case, that last measure is not very useful: if we're past the point of no return, there there's nothing we can do anyways.

(see also: ordering capability thresholds and local deaths under X-risk)

posted on 2023-02-11

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